危險的兩國

雖然近日股票、信賃市場有所回暖，但市場盛傳英國及韓國債務有爆破危機。英國分別要負擔Northern Rock、RBS、Lloyds等債務，形成債務評級被調低，借貸成本會上升。

美元大勢

圖1

圖2


美元近20年最大跌浪始於911前夕 ( 2001.7.31 報121.02 ) ，由於當時科網爆破，聯儲局將利息降低到1%，令到美匯形成雙頂，之後一瀉如注，直到 2008.3.9 美匯 71.58 才在 70-80 徘徊。次按爆發、雷曼兄弟破產、拯救AIG、8500億bailout 方案沒有影響美元強力反彈，直到92 附近又下降。2008年12月後美匯指數再次向上，如果破86.8 阻力相信會再戰92 以上。 ( 圖1)

很多分析認為美元會因為大量印鈔拯救經濟而不值一文，事實上美元因為全世界需要避險而得到穩定，所有投資者認為美元or 美債係而家最安全投資，相信就算金價(圖2) 近期重回升軌，沒有預視美元會大幅走低，相反金價若破不了930美元頂位，好可能升勢又會告一段落，2009年請不要大低估美元啊!!

TED spread

The TED spread is the difference between the interest rates on interbank loans and short-term U.S. government debt ("T-bills"). Initially, the TED spread was the difference between the interest rates for three-month U.S. Treasuries contracts and the three-month Eurodollars contract as represented by the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). However, since the Chicago Mercantile Exchange dropped T-bill futures, the TED spread is now calculated as the difference between the three-month T-bill interest rate and three-month LIBOR. TED is an acronym formed from T-Bill and ED, the ticker symbol for the Eurodollar futures contract. The size of the spread is usually denominated in basis points (bps). For example, if the T-bill rate is 5.10% and ED trades at 5.50%, the TED spread is 40 bps. The TED spread fluctuates over time, but historically has often remained within the range of 10 and 50 bps (0.1% and 0.5%), until 2007. A rising TED spread often presages a downturn in the U.S. stock market, as it indicates that liquidity is being withdrawn. Indicator The TED spread is an indicator of perceived credit risk in the general economy. This is because T-bills are considered risk-free while LIBOR reflects the credit risk of lending to commercial banks. When the TED spread increases, that is a sign that lenders believe the risk of default on interbank loans (also known as counterparty risk) is increasing. Interbank lenders therefore demand a higher rate of interest, or accept lower returns on safe investments such as T-bills. When the risk of bank defaults is considered to be decreasing, the TED spread decreases.The long term average of the TED has been 30 basis points with a maximum of 50 bps. During 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis ballooned the TED spread to a region of 150-200 bps. On September 17, 2008, the record set after the Black Monday crash of 1987 was broken as the TED spread exceeded 300 bps. Some higher readings for the spread were due to inability to obtain accurate LIBOR rates in the absence of a liquid unsecured lending market. On October 10, 2008, the TED spread reached another new high of 465 basis points.